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Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Behind the Scenes - the US Financial Collapse Continues

7 & 9 February, 6 March 2009

OK. How bad is the US financial system? Are things on their way to getting better, as mainstream economists report?

The answer... Not really.

The following facts are derived from a Mises Institute paper entitled "The Insolvency of the Fed."

What is happening is that the Federal Reserve is "recapitalizing" the US financial system by buying up bad assets - and thereby compromising the Federal Reserve system itself. In order to maintain US bank capital ratios, the Fed is taking on mountains of low quality assets, thus weakening its own capital ratios.

By way of contrast, the Fed still has massive gold holdings, left over from the days of the gold standard, at which time the US established possibly the largest gold account in world history. On the books, the Fed values its gold holdings at a nominal $42.44 per troy ounce. Of course, the Fed's gold is presently worth 20 times that amount on today's market.

Based on its present bookkeeping system, the capital ratio of the US Federal Reserve Bank has deteriorated from a factor of 22 to 1 to an amount of 50 to 1. That is, if only 2% of the Fed's current assets have to be written down, the Fed itself becomes technically bankrupt.

Interestingly, the Fed can fix this problem by pricing its gold holdings at their actual market value, which would increase its capital from 2% of its obligations to 12.35% of its obligations. This simple strategy would lower the bank's nominal capital ratio to 8 to 1!

In other words, the only asset that the Fed has left that is of substantial value is its gold holdings, which in today's market are worth 5 times the value of all of its other assets!

And if you didn't think things were bad enough at the Fed, have a look at John Williams' latest unmassaged "shadow" financial statistics.

Inflation is down all right, but not from 2% to 0% as the government spin doctors will have you believe. It is down from 14% to 8% - in a world of declining incomes!

The rate of broad M3 money supply growth is down too - but from a horrendous 18% level to a still surging and dollar-destroying 12% level.

What do these super-inflationary rates of money supply growth add up to in terms of estimated total US M3 money supply? Well, as recently as 2006, you could have talked in terms of $10 trillion US dollars in circulation. This is when the Fed stopped counting, as the number had begun to grow uncomfortably quickly! (The total reached $1 trillion for the first time in 1974, as can be seen below....)


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
DATE M3 NON-M2 M3 M3 NON-M2 M3
1959-Jan. 288.8 2.3 292.0 2.2
1959-Feb. 289.9 2.2 289.9 2.2
1959-Mar. 291.4 2.2 290.1 2.2
1959-Apr. 292.3 2.2 292.5 2.2
1959-May 294.4 2.2 292.5 2.3
1959-June 296.3 2.2 294.8 2.3
1959-July 297.4 2.2 296.7 2.3
1959-Aug. 298.5 2.1 297.0 2.2
1959-Sep. 298.8 2.1 298.2 2.1
1959-Oct. 298.5 2.0 298.9 2.0
1959-Nov. 299.1 2.0 299.7 1.9
1959-Dec. 299.7 1.9 302.4 1.8
1960-Jan. 300.1 1.9 303.4 1.9
1960-Feb. 300.4 1.9 300.4 1.9
1960-Mar. 301.4 2.0 300.2 2.0
1960-Apr. 302.2 2.1 302.4 2.1
1960-May 303.0 2.1 301.0 2.2
1960-June 304.5 2.2 303.1 2.2
1960-July 306.4 2.3 305.8 2.3
1960-Aug. 309.3 2.4 307.7 2.5
1960-Sep. 311.0 2.6 310.4 2.6
1960-Oct. 312.2 2.7 312.5 2.6
1960-Nov. 313.6 2.7 314.3 2.6
1960-Dec. 315.2 2.8 318.0 2.7
1961-Jan. 317.1 3.1 320.5 3.0
1961-Feb. 319.9 3.3 319.9 3.3
1961-Mar. 321.9 3.6 320.8 3.6
1961-Apr. 323.8 3.9 324.2 4.0
1961-May 326.5 4.3 324.5 4.4
1961-June 328.9 4.6 327.5 4.8
1961-July 330.5 5.0 330.0 5.1
1961-Aug. 332.7 5.1 331.0 5.2
1961-Sep. 334.8 5.2 334.0 5.2
1961-Oct. 336.5 5.4 336.8 5.2
1961-Nov. 338.8 5.5 339.3 5.2
1961-Dec. 340.8 5.3 343.7 5.2
1962-Jan. 343.0 5.5 346.5 5.4
1962-Feb. 346.1 5.9 346.2 5.9
1962-Mar. 349.4 6.3 348.4 6.3
1962-Apr. 352.1 6.6 352.7 6.7
1962-May 354.2 6.7 352.1 7.0
1962-June 356.3 7.1 355.0 7.3
1962-July 358.0 7.1 357.4 7.3
1962-Aug. 360.1 7.3 358.3 7.4
1962-Sep. 362.5 7.6 361.5 7.6
1962-Oct. 365.1 8.0 365.3 7.8
1962-Nov. 368.0 8.2 368.3 7.8
1962-Dec. 371.3 8.6 374.0 8.2
1963-Jan. 374.2 9.0 377.9 8.8
1963-Feb. 377.2 9.2 377.3 9.2
1963-Mar. 380.2 9.6 379.4 9.6
1963-Apr. 383.1 9.8 383.9 10.0
1963-May 386.2 10.1 383.9 10.5
1963-June 388.8 10.3 387.4 10.6
1963-July 391.5 10.4 390.9 10.7
1963-Aug. 394.5 10.9 392.5 11.0
1963-Sep. 397.3 11.3 396.1 11.2
1963-Oct. 400.0 11.7 400.1 11.4
1963-Nov. 403.8 12.3 404.1 11.8
1963-Dec. 405.9 12.7 408.7 12.2
1964-Jan. 408.5 13.2 412.6 13.1
1964-Feb. 411.3 13.7 411.4 13.7
1964-Mar. 413.6 13.8 412.9 14.0
1964-Apr. 415.8 14.1 416.8 14.4
1964-May 418.9 14.6 416.4 15.1
1964-June 422.1 15.1 420.8 15.4
1964-July 425.5 15.4 424.9 15.6
1964-Aug. 429.2 15.7 427.0 15.9
1964-Sep. 433.0 16.2 431.7 16.0
1964-Oct. 435.9 16.8 436.2 16.3
1964-Nov. 439.3 17.3 439.6 16.7
1964-Dec. 442.4 17.6 445.5 17.1
1965-Jan. 445.8 18.3 450.5 18.1
1965-Feb. 449.1 18.6 448.9 18.7
1965-Mar. 452.0 18.8 451.2 19.0
1965-Apr. 454.5 19.0 455.7 19.4
1965-May 456.4 19.3 453.6 19.9
1965-June 459.9 19.8 458.5 20.1
1965-July 463.3 20.4 462.6 20.5
1965-Aug. 466.8 21.0 464.5 21.2
1965-Sep. 471.1 21.6 469.8 21.3
1965-Oct. 474.9 22.4 475.4 21.7
1965-Nov. 478.3 22.6 478.7 22.0
1965-Dec. 482.1 23.0 485.5 22.4
1966-Jan. 485.1 23.1 490.1 23.0
1966-Feb. 487.8 23.2 487.1 23.4
1966-Mar. 490.8 23.6 489.8 23.9
1966-Apr. 494.0 24.8 495.3 25.2
1966-May 495.4 25.4 492.2 26.1
1966-June 497.1 25.9 495.7 26.1
1966-July 497.8 27.0 497.2 26.9
1966-Aug. 499.6 27.0 497.5 27.4
1966-Sep. 502.3 26.9 501.2 26.6
1966-Oct. 501.4 25.7 502.0 25.1
1966-Nov. 502.0 24.7 502.4 24.3
1966-Dec. 505.4 25.3 508.6 24.9
1967-Jan. 509.1 27.5 513.7 27.3
1967-Feb. 514.5 29.3 513.0 29.5
1967-Mar. 519.9 30.3 518.6 30.5
1967-Apr. 522.6 30.5 523.8 30.9
1967-May 527.7 30.5 524.5 31.2
1967-June 533.1 31.1 532.0 31.1
1967-July 537.7 31.4 537.3 31.1
1967-Aug. 542.5 31.7 540.9 32.3
1967-Sep. 546.8 32.2 546.2 32.0
1967-Oct. 550.2 32.1 550.8 31.6
1967-Nov. 553.9 32.7 554.1 32.5
1967-Dec. 557.9 33.1 560.9 32.9
1968-Jan. 560.4 33.0 564.7 32.8
1968-Feb. 563.6 33.2 561.4 33.3
1968-Mar. 567.0 33.8 565.4 33.9
1968-Apr. 569.2 33.5 570.5 33.7
1968-May 572.3 33.4 569.3 33.8
1968-June 575.9 33.3 575.4 33.1
1968-July 580.6 35.0 580.7 34.5
1968-Aug. 585.6 36.2 584.5 36.9
1968-Sep. 590.6 37.1 590.2 37.1
1968-Oct. 595.8 38.2 596.4 38.0
1968-Nov. 601.7 39.3 601.8 39.3
1968-Dec. 607.2 40.3 610.0 40.4
1969-Jan. 607.9 38.6 612.1 38.6
1969-Feb. 609.1 37.2 606.2 37.1
1969-Mar. 610.8 36.4 609.0 36.1
1969-Apr. 611.5 35.8 613.2 35.8
1969-May 611.6 35.1 608.9 35.4
1969-June 612.1 33.7 612.0 33.3
1969-July 610.1 30.6 610.7 30.1
1969-Aug. 607.7 27.7 606.6 28.2
1969-Sep. 608.5 26.5 608.0 26.6
1969-Oct. 608.9 25.5 609.3 25.6
1969-Nov. 613.5 28.1 613.0 28.2
1969-Dec. 615.9 28.0 618.2 28.1
1970-Jan. 616.1 26.5 618.3 26.3
1970-Feb. 613.3 27.0 610.3 26.9
1970-Mar. 615.7 28.5 615.7 28.4
1970-Apr. 619.5 31.2 624.2 31.4
1970-May 624.3 32.8 623.8 32.9
1970-June 627.1 31.9 629.0 31.5
1970-July 635.7 36.6 637.1 35.8
1970-Aug. 644.8 40.0 643.6 40.6
1970-Sep. 654.4 43.2 652.7 44.0
1970-Oct. 662.3 45.9 660.5 46.5
1970-Nov. 669.3 48.2 666.4 48.1
1970-Dec. 677.1 50.6 678.2 50.3
1971-Jan. 685.5 52.6 688.4 53.0
1971-Feb. 695.8 54.8 692.7 54.7
1971-Mar. 706.5 56.6 706.3 56.2
1971-Apr. 713.7 55.3 718.9 55.4
1971-May 723.3 56.6 722.7 56.6
1971-June 730.1 57.2 732.1 56.2
1971-July 738.3 58.7 739.8 57.4
1971-Aug. 744.0 58.5 743.1 59.4
1971-Sep. 751.7 59.3 750.0 60.4
1971-Oct. 760.2 61.8 758.3 62.7
1971-Nov. 768.3 63.7 764.9 63.7
1971-Dec. 776.0 65.7 776.6 65.3
1972-Jan. 783.8 66.1 786.1 66.1
1972-Feb. 792.9 67.2 789.2 67.0
1972-Mar. 800.6 67.1 800.5 66.8
1972-Apr. 807.9 69.5 813.2 69.4
1972-May 816.1 72.7 815.4 72.9
1972-June 824.6 74.9 827.0 73.8
1972-July 835.5 76.1 837.8 74.8
1972-Aug. 846.6 77.9 846.1 79.1
1972-Sep. 856.4 78.1 854.8 79.6
1972-Oct. 865.8 78.9 863.6 80.0
1972-Nov. 875.8 81.8 871.9 81.7
1972-Dec. 885.9 83.7 886.2 83.1
1973-Jan. 896.3 86.0 897.8 85.6
1973-Feb. 906.1 92.0 901.7 91.6
1973-Mar. 915.0 99.7 914.7 99.1
1973-Apr. 922.4 102.7 927.8 102.3
1973-May 932.3 105.5 931.6 105.8
1973-June 940.7 107.5 943.5 106.3
1973-July 950.3 113.7 953.2 112.5
1973-Aug. 959.0 120.2 959.5 122.1
1973-Sep. 965.8 126.5 965.0 129.0
1973-Oct. 972.0 129.4 970.2 130.9
1973-Nov. 977.3 128.5 973.8 128.4
1973-Dec. 985.0 129.5 985.2 128.7
1974-Jan. 993.9 134.3 994.6 133.1
1974-Feb. 1002.4 138.2 997.2 137.4
1974-Mar. 1010.7 140.6 1010.0 140.0
1974-Apr. 1020.8 147.9 1025.6 147.0
1974-May 1029.2 154.6 1028.5 155.1
1974-June 1037.8 159.9 1040.4 158.5
1974-July 1043.9 162.5 1047.3 161.3
1974-Aug. 1048.6 164.5 1049.6 166.7
1974-Sep. 1052.9 164.9 1052.6 167.9
1974-Oct. 1058.5 165.2 1057.2 166.8
1974-Nov. 1063.7 165.1 1060.5 165.1
1974-Dec. 1069.9 167.8 1070.8 167.3
1975-Jan. 1075.5 169.2 1076.8 168.9
1975-Feb. 1082.7 168.6 1076.3 167.6
1975-Mar. 1090.0 165.0 1088.7 164.2
1975-Apr. 1095.8 160.7 1100.8 159.7
1975-May 1105.9 158.0 1105.0 158.8
1975-June 1118.7 155.7 1121.2 154.3
1975-July 1128.7 153.6 1131.9 152.2
1975-Aug. 1135.1 152.0 1135.5 153.1
1975-Sep. 1145.9 154.4 1144.5 156.1
1975-Oct. 1153.8 156.0 1151.8 156.2
1975-Nov. 1163.8 156.9 1161.6 156.8
1975-Dec. 1170.2 153.9 1173.3 155.5
1976-Jan. 1181.6 155.0 1183.2 154.8
1976-Feb. 1193.5 153.1 1186.7 152.5
1976-Mar. 1204.6 154.6 1202.1 154.4
1976-Apr. 1216.7 155.9 1221.7 154.8
1976-May 1227.6 155.5 1226.6 156.3
1976-June 1236.1 158.5 1237.9 157.2
1976-July 1245.9 159.6 1249.9 158.3
1976-Aug. 1259.2 160.6 1258.6 161.2
1976-Sep. 1268.2 157.4 1266.8 158.3
1976-Oct. 1280.8 155.8 1280.4 155.4
1976-Nov. 1294.5 156.2 1291.9 156.8
1976-Dec. 1309.9 157.9 1313.6 160.1
1977-Jan. 1322.5 157.3 1324.6 157.0
1977-Feb. 1335.5 158.0 1327.6 157.7
1977-Mar. 1348.4 159.9 1345.2 160.0
1977-Apr. 1360.6 161.0 1366.2 159.6
1977-May 1374.0 164.9 1371.2 165.7
1977-June 1387.6 169.8 1388.2 168.4
1977-July 1400.4 173.6 1405.2 172.3
1977-Aug. 1415.2 178.2 1414.0 178.7
1977-Sep. 1428.0 181.8 1426.9 182.2
1977-Oct. 1441.8 187.8 1442.8 186.9
1977-Nov. 1457.1 194.8 1456.4 196.1
1977-Dec. 1470.4 200.1 1476.2 203.1
1978-Jan. 1486.3 206.6 1488.9 206.6
1978-Feb. 1498.1 212.6 1489.8 212.9
1978-Mar. 1513.0 220.8 1509.7 221.5
1978-Apr. 1528.6 228.2 1533.1 225.7
1978-May 1544.3 233.8 1538.7 233.9
1978-June 1555.4 236.9 1553.7 234.7
1978-July 1567.0 242.9 1571.2 241.1
1978-Aug. 1583.2 249.6 1581.9 250.5
1978-Sep. 1597.2 252.1 1597.0 252.3
1978-Oct. 1611.1 258.8 1612.9 257.6
1978-Nov. 1630.2 271.1 1631.0 272.9
1978-Dec. 1644.5 278.6 1652.6 281.7
1979-Jan. 1656.8 285.2 1660.6 285.4
1979-Feb. 1669.2 291.4 1661.8 292.5
1979-Mar. 1683.2 295.4 1680.5 296.5
1979-Apr. 1700.8 298.7 1703.7 295.2
1979-May 1711.0 300.8 1703.7 301.0
1979-June 1728.1 305.1 1725.1 302.6
1979-July 1743.3 308.5 1746.6 307.3
1979-Aug. 1761.6 315.0 1761.8 317.5
1979-Sep. 1783.1 328.9 1783.6 329.1
1979-Oct. 1796.7 336.3 1798.4 334.8
1979-Nov. 1798.9 333.1 1800.7 334.3
1979-Dec. 1808.7 335.0 1815.2 336.2
1980-Jan. 1823.0 340.3 1826.4 340.1
1980-Feb. 1841.7 347.2 1835.4 349.2
1980-Mar. 1850.2 350.4 1848.5 351.3
1980-Apr. 1854.2 352.0 1856.0 348.3
1980-May 1867.0 354.6 1858.4 354.2
1980-June 1884.4 355.2 1880.3 352.9
1980-July 1903.2 357.7 1906.3 357.3
1980-Aug. 1920.8 359.3 1923.9 363.2
1980-Sep. 1935.2 361.2 1935.5 362.4
1980-Oct. 1953.6 368.8 1956.7 368.3
1980-Nov. 1975.3 379.5 1979.7 380.7
1980-Dec. 1995.5 395.7 2000.8 396.0
1981-Jan. 2020.6 413.6 2023.5 412.9
1981-Feb. 2039.5 420.8 2033.1 422.5
1981-Mar. 2058.1 421.5 2055.4 422.2
1981-Apr. 2086.4 427.1 2087.6 423.2
1981-May 2102.7 438.5 2093.5 438.1
1981-June 2118.4 448.1 2112.0 445.0
1981-July 2137.9 456.0 2140.1 455.0
1981-Aug. 2157.1 462.8 2162.1 467.5
1981-Sep. 2179.4 473.3 2181.7 475.3
1981-Oct. 2204.7 482.9 2209.5 483.1
1981-Nov. 2226.7 490.6 2233.0 492.0
1981-Dec. 2254.5 499.1 2259.0 498.8
1982-Jan. 2275.7 505.4 2276.6 503.8
1982-Feb. 2284.4 509.9 2276.4 511.1
1982-Mar. 2303.0 516.5 2298.8 517.1
1982-Apr. 2328.5 524.5 2328.1 520.3
1982-May 2343.1 527.7 2332.9 528.0
1982-June 2359.7 533.7 2353.0 530.3
1982-July 2372.2 537.8 2373.5 535.7
1982-Aug. 2396.6 547.2 2401.9 551.8
1982-Sep. 2413.0 549.7 2416.5 552.5
1982-Oct. 2435.0 560.3 2441.8 561.1
1982-Nov. 2447.4 559.0 2455.9 561.1
1982-Dec. 2460.6 550.4 2469.1 550.9
1983-Jan. 2488.9 525.6 2492.3 524.5
1983-Feb. 2517.8 517.4 2507.5 518.1
1983-Mar. 2534.1 515.5 2529.3 516.2
1983-Apr. 2553.9 522.0 2555.7 518.7
1983-May 2569.5 523.1 2559.8 524.7
1983-June 2585.0 528.4 2579.8 524.9
1983-July 2596.0 528.2 2597.6 524.9
1983-Aug. 2609.8 532.9 2610.8 535.4
1983-Sep. 2626.3 540.2 2626.0 542.0
1983-Oct. 2646.1 543.9 2649.4 544.4
1983-Nov. 2673.9 558.5 2681.1 560.4
1983-Dec. 2697.4 570.9 2708.5 571.4
1984-Jan. 2714.9 573.7 2721.4 573.5
1984-Feb. 2742.6 581.2 2733.2 582.4
1984-Mar. 2771.9 593.6 2766.6 594.4
1984-Apr. 2801.2 606.3 2802.1 602.8
1984-May 2828.4 620.9 2817.8 623.0
1984-June 2850.2 631.7 2845.8 628.1
1984-July 2871.8 644.9 2870.7 639.4
1984-Aug. 2886.0 652.4 2885.8 653.7
1984-Sep. 2904.7 657.1 2905.6 659.7
1984-Oct. 2930.2 668.0 2932.3 669.4
1984-Nov. 2957.9 673.1 2965.9 676.2
1984-Dec. 2990.6 680.7 3004.6 682.5
1985-Jan. 3018.0 681.9 3026.5 683.3
1985-Feb. 3040.7 683.2 3031.7 684.9
1985-Mar. 3056.6 687.1 3051.6 687.8
1985-Apr. 3062.5 683.7 3062.5 679.4
1985-May 3078.8 685.6 3067.0 687.0
1985-June 3103.6 687.4 3100.0 682.9
1985-July 3112.7 679.6 3111.9 673.7
1985-Aug. 3131.4 683.9 3129.9 684.0
1985-Sep. 3149.7 689.8 3148.5 692.4
1985-Oct. 3167.1 695.5 3166.9 697.0
1985-Nov. 3182.3 701.1 3189.7 704.2
1985-Dec. 3208.1 712.4 3221.6 714.0
1986-Jan. 3232.8 727.1 3243.0 728.6
1986-Feb. 3250.7 734.6 3241.8 736.4
1986-Mar. 3277.2 741.0 3272.8 742.1
1986-Apr. 3307.7 746.7 3309.9 741.8
1986-May 3331.0 742.6 3318.4 743.7
1986-June 3353.0 744.4 3348.8 739.9
1986-July 3381.9 751.4 3381.2 744.9
1986-Aug. 3407.8 757.5 3407.3 757.6
1986-Sep. 3435.3 763.4 3432.2 766.4
1986-Oct. 3455.6 763.7 3453.7 764.8
1986-Nov. 3467.1 761.6 3474.9 765.4
1986-Dec. 3499.1 766.8 3513.3 768.3
1987-Jan. 3524.7 776.7 3536.0 778.4
1987-Feb. 3534.3 782.6 3524.1 784.6
1987-Mar. 3542.6 784.9 3538.4 786.4
1987-Apr. 3562.7 790.8 3568.1 784.9
1987-May 3578.2 801.0 3565.1 801.1
1987-June 3593.4 814.6 3588.0 810.4
1987-July 3599.2 815.9 3599.8 810.4
1987-Aug. 3620.1 827.8 3621.1 829.5
1987-Sep. 3642.5 838.9 3639.8 842.3
1987-Oct. 3667.9 848.7 3665.6 850.0
1987-Nov. 3681.5 857.5 3689.1 862.4
1987-Dec. 3686.5 855.0 3698.7 855.3
1988-Jan. 3709.1 856.7 3719.9 857.7
1988-Feb. 3737.2 861.8 3728.0 864.1
1988-Mar. 3762.1 866.4 3759.7 868.0
1988-Apr. 3788.5 872.7 3796.0 865.5
1988-May 3814.6 883.4 3798.5 882.6
1988-June 3834.2 890.9 3827.8 887.6
1988-July 3850.3 897.2 3851.5 892.4
1988-Aug. 3864.5 906.3 3864.9 908.9
1988-Sep. 3876.3 913.1 3872.3 916.0
1988-Oct. 3890.1 918.5 3888.4 920.1
1988-Nov. 3909.0 922.6 3917.4 928.5
1988-Dec. 3928.8 934.4 3941.1 934.3
1989-Jan. 3937.0 939.3 3944.3 939.4
1989-Feb. 3940.8 942.7 3932.8 944.3
1989-Mar. 3961.5 955.8 3962.2 957.1
1989-Apr. 3970.8 958.9 3980.0 950.8
1989-May 3974.9 957.5 3958.1 956.1
1989-June 3995.2 961.6 3987.5 959.2
1989-July 4017.4 959.2 4016.6 955.1
1989-Aug. 4027.5 947.1 4027.3 950.3
1989-Sep. 4035.2 936.4 4029.7 937.3
1989-Oct. 4047.5 926.8 4043.6 927.8
1989-Nov. 4063.1 923.7 4071.4 929.4
1989-Dec. 4077.1 918.6 4089.5 918.0
1990-Jan. 4089.2 916.4 4091.7 914.9
1990-Feb. 4095.6 910.0 4089.8 912.8
1990-Mar. 4098.3 901.7 4102.8 903.8
1990-Apr. 4105.8 897.4 4117.5 891.3
1990-May 4107.8 901.2 4093.4 900.7
1990-June 4115.1 895.9 4111.3 895.0
1990-July 4127.8 897.9 4125.2 895.2
1990-Aug. 4144.2 896.5 4145.4 901.1
1990-Sep. 4151.5 891.4 4147.1 892.3
1990-Oct. 4155.9 890.9 4149.8 890.2
1990-Nov. 4151.8 882.2 4156.8 884.7
1990-Dec. 4154.7 875.9 4166.1 874.2
1991-Jan. 4177.2 882.7 4177.9 881.7
1991-Feb. 4193.9 882.1 4191.0 887.7
1991-Mar. 4201.5 872.1 4209.9 875.4
1991-Apr. 4209.0 868.6 4220.9 863.7
1991-May 4208.4 857.9 4195.9 858.0
1991-June 4209.2 850.0 4205.2 848.1
1991-July 4202.5 839.8 4197.0 835.5
1991-Aug. 4197.1 835.5 4197.1 838.9
1991-Sep. 4191.2 829.3 4182.8 828.5
1991-Oct. 4195.4 828.5 4187.1 826.4
1991-Nov. 4201.2 829.3 4209.7 831.6
1991-Dec. 4210.3 830.5 4222.8 829.4
1992-Jan. 4215.8 827.6 4218.1 828.1
1992-Feb. 4236.2 829.1 4234.3 837.3
1992-Mar. 4238.4 826.6 4241.6 829.7
1992-Apr. 4226.1 818.9 4240.1 814.4
1992-May 4220.5 815.9 4211.1 816.4
1992-June 4218.7 818.1 4211.4 815.0
1992-July 4218.9 817.6 4212.2 811.3
1992-Aug. 4227.1 821.4 4227.9 824.0
1992-Sep. 4235.7 818.6 4225.1 816.7
1992-Oct. 4234.9 803.8 4227.8 801.6
1992-Nov. 4230.8 796.6 4240.7 799.9
1992-Dec. 4222.6 789.5 4237.6 788.3
1993-Jan. 4204.5 777.2 4210.1 778.3
1993-Feb. 4207.7 784.2 4201.2 792.3
1993-Mar. 4211.1 790.0 4210.9 792.1
1993-Apr. 4212.6 791.8 4225.3 786.9
1993-May 4241.9 797.7 4231.4 798.2
1993-June 4242.1 792.4 4238.4 790.7
1993-July 4238.9 788.9 4234.7 783.3
1993-Aug. 4240.4 785.7 4237.8 787.3
1993-Sep. 4249.6 788.4 4239.4 786.4
1993-Oct. 4256.5 791.2 4253.0 791.1
1993-Nov. 4275.3 795.9 4283.5 799.4
1993-Dec. 4285.6 801.3 4304.5 800.1
1994-Jan. 4282.4 797.3 4288.5 798.5
1994-Feb. 4268.7 782.3 4258.1 788.7
1994-Mar. 4279.6 786.8 4276.8 788.2
1994-Apr. 4290.4 793.2 4307.0 788.8
1994-May 4300.8 795.4 4285.3 795.5
1994-June 4297.3 805.3 4294.9 804.5
1994-July 4318.3 820.5 4317.4 815.5
1994-Aug. 4319.7 824.2 4316.7 824.3
1994-Sep. 4329.4 832.7 4318.0 830.0
1994-Oct. 4339.7 844.6 4335.6 846.2
1994-Nov. 4355.4 857.4 4364.0 861.2
1994-Dec. 4369.8 872.2 4389.0 870.4
1995-Jan. 4393.7 890.3 4397.4 891.9
1995-Feb. 4396.5 895.9 4387.0 902.3
1995-Mar. 4415.7 913.8 4417.7 916.4
1995-Apr. 4436.5 926.6 4454.0 922.0
1995-May 4476.0 942.8 4459.4 943.1
1995-June 4514.6 956.0 4510.2 954.6
1995-July 4540.2 963.0 4537.6 957.2
1995-Aug. 4575.5 976.1 4570.0 973.4
1995-Sep. 4596.4 985.2 4585.7 980.4
1995-Oct. 4613.6 990.4 4604.8 992.2
1995-Nov. 4624.4 993.5 4631.1 997.3
1995-Dec. 4636.3 995.7 4658.8 995.0
1996-Jan. 4670.3 1011.8 4676.3 1015.1
1996-Feb. 4700.6 1028.0 4694.8 1037.9
1996-Mar. 4734.7 1036.6 4746.4 1042.0
1996-Apr. 4753.0 1043.6 4770.7 1039.6
1996-May 4788.1 1069.2 4769.3 1069.5
1996-June 4811.0 1079.0 4807.1 1075.9
1996-July 4837.4 1089.9 4827.5 1081.9
1996-Aug. 4857.3 1101.3 4850.3 1095.4
1996-Sep. 4885.4 1119.4 4869.6 1112.1
1996-Oct. 4925.6 1145.7 4911.9 1146.1
1996-Nov. 4946.3 1151.4 4954.3 1155.7
1996-Dec. 4985.5 1170.3 5008.0 1172.4
1997-Jan. 5013.0 1183.9 5021.6 1188.6
1997-Feb. 5045.3 1205.2 5047.3 1219.0
1997-Mar. 5079.8 1224.8 5100.4 1234.1
1997-Apr. 5120.7 1248.7 5145.3 1245.5
1997-May 5146.8 1262.6 5128.8 1264.0
1997-June 5176.9 1275.0 5166.8 1270.9
1997-July 5235.2 1313.6 5216.1 1300.9
1997-Aug. 5291.5 1339.9 5278.7 1328.7
1997-Sep. 5333.7 1362.7 5309.2 1350.8
1997-Oct. 5376.2 1387.6 5358.6 1384.6
1997-Nov. 5417.2 1407.1 5425.1 1411.6
1997-Dec. 5460.9 1429.3 5489.2 1436.4
1998-Jan. 5508.6 1453.0 5522.2 1460.6
1998-Feb. 5545.5 1457.3 5554.2 1475.2
1998-Mar. 5610.7 1495.5 5638.5 1508.6
1998-Apr. 5647.1 1508.7 5679.9 1508.0
1998-May 5687.0 1527.6 5673.2 1531.7
1998-June 5728.4 1543.1 5711.8 1538.5
1998-July 5749.6 1546.8 5721.5 1528.7
1998-Aug. 5814.7 1586.1 5792.2 1569.3
1998-Sep. 5883.9 1612.9 5851.5 1593.6
1998-Oct. 5953.6 1641.5 5927.5 1631.3
1998-Nov. 6010.3 1658.5 6015.4 1663.7
1998-Dec. 6051.9 1668.2 6087.9 1681.6
1999-Jan. 6080.9 1675.0 6102.9 1687.5
1999-Feb. 6134.1 1702.0 6151.2 1725.6
1999-Mar. 6132.3 1690.2 6172.0 1708.2
1999-Apr. 6172.7 1699.1 6211.7 1700.3
1999-May 6200.4 1708.6 6188.3 1715.6
1999-June 6237.5 1723.9 6219.7 1720.1
1999-July 6268.7 1730.9 6232.2 1707.9
1999-Aug. 6299.2 1740.0 6265.7 1719.4
1999-Sep. 6323.0 1748.7 6282.4 1723.0
1999-Oct. 6378.4 1784.6 6346.7 1766.6
1999-Nov. 6465.0 1845.2 6467.2 1849.9
1999-Dec. 6551.5 1902.8 6597.1 1922.0
2000-Jan. 6605.5 1929.9 6630.9 1946.2
2000-Feb. 6642.2 1951.1 6661.1 1976.2
2000-Mar. 6704.0 1983.4 6753.1 2006.7
2000-Apr. 6767.3 1996.2 6812.4 1998.2
2000-May 6776.9 2013.5 6765.3 2025.5
2000-June 6823.6 2043.1 6805.1 2041.7
2000-July 6875.2 2081.6 6836.1 2055.1
2000-Aug. 6945.0 2116.7 6905.8 2092.4
2000-Sep. 7003.5 2142.4 6957.5 2108.2
2000-Oct. 7027.0 2147.9 6982.0 2120.2
2000-Nov. 7038.3 2149.6 7043.7 2154.1
2000-Dec. 7117.6 2186.3 7173.8 2211.1
2001-Jan. 7237.2 2250.1 7259.5 2269.1
2001-Feb. 7308.5 2281.3 7332.5 2311.3
2001-Mar. 7372.0 2284.2 7428.5 2313.7
2001-Apr. 7507.8 2358.4 7546.0 2357.6
2001-May 7564.1 2414.8 7551.6 2427.0
2001-June 7644.7 2456.4 7631.7 2455.9
2001-July 7691.9 2470.1 7644.1 2437.6
2001-Aug. 7696.3 2438.9 7658.0 2412.5
2001-Sep. 7853.2 2484.1 7802.5 2441.9
2001-Oct. 7897.8 2534.6 7845.9 2500.2
2001-Nov. 7973.0 2568.2 7981.4 2574.7
2001-Dec. 8035.4 2584.0 8105.8 2619.8
2002-Jan. 8063.9 2586.6 8086.7 2613.2
2002-Feb. 8109.3 2604.1 8128.1 2637.0
2002-Mar. 8117.3 2604.2 8174.2 2634.5
2002-Apr. 8142.6 2624.7 8171.9 2619.1
2002-May 8175.1 2630.8 8159.6 2638.6
2002-June 8190.8 2624.4 8184.9 2624.7
2002-July 8244.2 2629.8 8202.6 2600.2
2002-Aug. 8298.1 2645.0 8268.9 2623.1
2002-Sep. 8331.5 2653.6 8285.5 2615.5
2002-Oct. 8368.9 2642.6 8317.1 2608.5
2002-Nov. 8498.8 2726.2 8513.4 2730.6
2002-Dec. 8568.0 2767.4 8633.5 2801.3
2003-Jan. 8588.1 2757.6 8602.0 2782.0
2003-Feb. 8628.7 2759.1 8635.5 2789.6
2003-Mar. 8648.8 2761.6 8694.4 2787.0
2003-Apr. 8686.0 2757.3 8714.2 2748.9
2003-May 8741.9 2758.1 8728.4 2765.9
2003-June 8791.6 2767.8 8792.3 2772.7
2003-July 8888.7 2815.5 8850.5 2787.4
2003-Aug. 8918.2 2797.5 8902.7 2781.9
2003-Sep. 8906.5 2806.6 8871.7 2780.2
2003-Oct. 8896.8 2810.9 8852.1 2780.1
2003-Nov. 8880.3 2800.9 8894.6 2798.7
2003-Dec. 8872.3 2792.7 8927.8 2815.9
2004-Jan. 8930.2 2841.9 8930.7 2859.9
2004-Feb. 9000.3 2868.1 8993.9 2892.5
2004-Mar. 9080.7 2907.6 9108.2 2927.3
2004-Apr. 9149.6 2932.9 9178.3 2926.1
2004-May 9243.8 2963.4 9236.2 2972.6
2004-June 9275.7 2987.1 9281.4 2993.5
2004-July 9282.7 2987.5 9257.1 2964.2
2004-Aug. 9314.4 2997.3 9299.9 2987.5
2004-Sep. 9351.8 3005.1 9333.8 2989.6
2004-Oct. 9359.4 2990.3 9329.1 2965.7
2004-Nov. 9395.1 2991.3 9396.0 2982.5
2004-Dec. 9433.0 3011.1 9482.2 3025.4
2005-Jan. 9487.2 3051.1 9479.3 3063.8
2005-Feb. 9531.6 3076.2 9511.8 3096.3
2005-Mar. 9565.3 3090.4 9584.7 3107.0
2005-Apr. 9620.9 3139.9 9660.5 3136.6
2005-May 9665.0 3175.5 9654.6 3186.4
2005-June 9725.3 3209.3 9734.3 3215.5
2005-July 9762.4 3226.4 9745.7 3206.5
2005-Aug. 9864.6 3298.4 9852.8 3291.0
2005-Sep. 9950.8 3354.3 9938.7 3344.9
2005-Oct. 10032.0 3406.3 10005.7 3386.3
2005-Nov. 10078.5 3431.0 10077.2 3416.4
2005-Dec. 10154.0 3478.5 10201.4 3488.3
2006-Jan. 10242.8 3506.0 10221.9 3515.2
2006-Feb. 10298.7 3540.2 10276.1 3560.7

Now - I guess you had better round off that recent (February 2006) $10 trillion figure to $15 trillion US dollars in circulation today. Only three years was required to achieve this dramatic near-50% ($5 trillion) increase. Or, you could break out the Monopoly game board and use your US dollars as "Monopoly money."

Because the great majority of the $4-5 trillion in new dollars were created out of thin air, they were just "imagined" into existence by the Federal Reserve, if you will, as illustrated in Mr. Williams' chart below:

Let's look at the other sectors.

How about unemployment? It's up almost double - from 10% in 2000 to 18% today.


GDP growth? Down from 7-8% in 1983, but not to 0%, as we are told by the authorities. Rather, US GDP growth is now running at a -4% annual clip.

How about the trade-weighted dollar? Well, it's been up since the financial system fell apart. Why? Because investors who are scrambling out of illiquid assets into US treasuries have to buy US dollars to purchase the Treasuries. But the "ascending" dollar has held only 55% of its value since 1985, and pretty soon, it is going to fall considerably lower than that, as it continues its death spiral.

So are we soon going to be getting back to normal?

The answer? Not a chance.

All that's left is "the new normal" - an insolvent Federal Reserve, US money centre banks that are wards of the indebted US government, a US government that will never pay its trillions of dollars in mounting debts, and a US dollar that is spiralling towards parity with the Zimbabwean currency.

Want to know what the new normal is?

The new normal is that gold is money again, and investors are beginning to figure that out in larger numbers - as the market value of gold has continued to climb against almost all other assets.

In fact, little known to most - the value of gold has moved to record highs this year in almost every global currency save the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. Let's close with a look at the market value of Canadian dollar gold (now $1150 Canadian per ounce):

Gold is the new normal. And the golden tsunami continues its roll to shore from the centre of the deep ocean. I'd guess we're continuing on our way to $6000 gold.

9 & 27 February, 6 March 2009: How bad can the general economic circumstances get? As mentioned previously, Mark Lundeen has been tracking the current stock market crash against the grand-daddy of them all - the 1929-1932 (89.16%) crash.

The current crash is now the second worst on record, with a 53.44% drop as of March 5, 2009. Only the great depression stands as competition to the downside. As Mr. Lundeen pointed out February 9, the Fed had drained a further 11% of its reserves in just the previous 6 weeks. Behind the scenes, the fundamentals have perhaps never been uglier - even in 1929! After all, in 1929, no one had even dreamed of a multi-trillion dollar derivative market, nor any of the other disastrous financial inventions of the recent ultra-bubble era.

So, have we seen the bottom yet? I don't think so. A bounce is due at some point - probably a big one. But this bounce is likely to be only a hiccup on the way down as the Greenspan Depression continues its descent! Mr. Lundeen's best guess is that this decline will be at least the second greatest in US history, and over the past 3 weeks, it has moved from 5th to 3rd, and now (March 2, 2009) 2nd on the list (not yet entered in chart above). Note that this decline stands as first for greatest one-year decline - the low point can be seen at week 52 on Mr. Lundeen's chart.

Bill Fleckenstein also noted today that the past ten years have been the worst ten year-period in history for US investors, reminding his readers that Alan Greenspan's easy money policies triggered the series of financial bubbles that morphed into the current meltdown. And believe me, we are in for considerably more than 10 bad years. There will be ups and downs, but the bad investment news is going to continue for many, many more years to come!
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